Back

American Journal of Preventive Medicine

Elsevier BV

Preprints posted in the last 90 days, ranked by how well they match American Journal of Preventive Medicine's content profile, based on 11 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.02% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

1
Links between Cannabinoid Hyperemesis Syndrome symptoms and drug use, mental health problems, antisocial behavior, and personality in a national survey of adults in the United States

Hicks, B. M.; Price, A.; Goldman, P.; Ilgen, M. A.

2026-02-28 gastroenterology 10.64898/2026.02.26.26347188 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
15.1%
Show abstract

BackgroundCannabinoid hyperemesis syndrome (CHS) is characterized by episodes of severe nausea, vomiting, and abdominal pain among those with heavy cannabis use. We estimated differences between those reporting CHS symptoms and other daily and less frequent cannabis users on drug use, psychiatric problems, other health problems, antisocial behavior, and personality. MethodsThe National Firearms, Alcohol, Cannabis, and Suicide survey was administered to 7034 US adults in 2025. Survey items assessed substance use, common psychiatric symptoms, personality traits, and symptoms of CHS. ResultsThose with CHS symptoms reported the highest rates and greatest variety of drug use compared to others who used cannabis. Those with CHS symptoms reported higher rates of other drug use than those who used cannabis daily without CHS symptoms across a variety of drug classes, including opioids, hallucinogens, and sedatives, higher rates of drug overdoses, and greater use of all drug classes than those with less-than-daily cannabis use. Those with CHS symptoms also reported more depression, anxiety, sleep problems, chronic pain, antisocial behavior, intimate partner violence, and disinhibited personality traits than those who used daily (mean d = 0.58) and less frequently (mean d = 0.69) and those with no cannabis use in the past 12 months (mean d = 0.99). ConclusionsThose with CHS symptoms exhibit a variety of psychological and behavioral problems including higher rates of other drug use, psychiatric symptoms, antisocial behavior, and dysfunctional personality traits. Results highlight the importance of understanding and addressing the broader psychosocial challenges faced by people experiencing CHS symptoms. Highlights O_LICHS symptoms are linked to greater polysubstance use and overdose risk C_LIO_LICHS symptoms are associated with depression, anxiety, sleep, and pain problems C_LIO_LICHS tied to antisocial behavior and intimate partner violence C_LIO_LICHS shows disinhibited personality traits and low well-being C_LIO_LINational survey identifies high-risk psychosocial CHS profile C_LI

2
Elevated suicidal thoughts and behaviors among adults reporting symptoms of Cannabinoid Hyperemesis Syndrome: Results from a national survey of US adults

Hicks, B. M. M.; Price, A.; Goldman, P.; Ilgen, M. A.

2026-02-28 gastroenterology 10.64898/2026.02.26.26347185 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
14.4%
Show abstract

ObjectiveAs cannabis use has increased in the United States, so has cannabinoid hyperemesis syndrome (CHS), a disorder characterized by severe nausea, vomiting, and abdominal pain among heavy cannabis users. We previously showed that CHS symptoms are associated with several behavioral and psychological characteristics linked to psychosocial impairment. We examined links between CHS symptoms and suicidal thoughts, behaviors, and proximal suicide risk factors. MethodsWe used data from the National Firearms, Alcohol, Cannabis, and Suicide survey, a nationally representative survey of 7,034 US adults. Items assessed symptoms of CHS and suicidal thoughts and behaviors. Comparisons focused on: those with daily cannabis use and CHS symptoms (n = 191), those with daily cannabis use without CHS symptoms (n = 882), those with past year cannabis use but not daily use (n = 1288), and those without past year cannabis use (n = 4673). ResultsThose with CHS symptoms reported the highest prevalence of suicidal thoughts and behaviors with most lifetime rates being significantly higher than those with daily cannabis use without CHS symptoms. Those with CHS symptoms also reported higher mean-levels of thoughts and feelings associated with suicide (i.e., perceived burdensomeness, thwarted belongingness, defeat, entrapment) than all the other groups. ConclusionsThose with CHS symptoms reported especially high rates of suicidal thoughts, behaviors, and attempts even when compared to others with daily cannabis use. People with CHS symptoms appear to be at high risk of suicide, possibly related to distress from their gastrointestinal symptoms and psychiatric, substance use, and medical comorbidities.

3
Cigarette and E-Cigarette Tax Impacts on America's Oldest Generation of Smokers

Semprini, J.

2026-01-30 health policy 10.64898/2026.01.27.26344945 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
10.0%
Show abstract

BackgroundAs cigarette smoking continues declining among youth and young adults, smoking rates among older Americans remain unchanged. Historically, cigarette and, more recently, e-cigarette tax policies influenced smoking behavior in younger smokers. Understanding how older smokers respond to tax changes can inform public health strategies. MethodsWe assembled a quarterly panel of state cigarette and e-cigarette tax rates using the CDC STATE System Tobacco (2000-2024) and E-Cigarette Legislation databases (2015-2024), then merged these data to individual-level survey responses from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). Our sample included all adults aged [≥]65, but our main specification included adults with a history of smoking. We estimated two-way fixed-effects population-weighted linear probability regression models of current smoking and past-year quit attempts. ResultsAmong 3,117,382 adults, 50% had a history of smoking; from which 18% currently smoked. A one-dollar tax increase was associated with current smoking: cigarette tax = -0.61-percentage points (CI = -0.94,-0.28); e-cigarette tax = +0.19-percentage-points (CI = 0.14,0.24). There was no association between cigarette taxes and quit attempts. A one-dollar increase in e-cigarette tax was associated with reduced quit attempts (-0.17-percentage-points; CI = -28,-0.06). Approaching tax parity by one dollar was associated with increased current smoking by 0.23-percentage-points (CI = 0.16,0.29) and reduced quit attempts by -0.17-percentage-points (CI = -0.29,0.05). ConclusionsOlder American smokers appear responsive to cigarette and e-cig tax changes. Policies increasing the relative cost of e-cigarettes may impede cessation and perpetuate smoking rates in older generations at the highest risk of smoking related harm. ImplicationsMany studies have investigated the impact of cigarette and e-cigarette tax changes on smoking behavior in youth or younger adults. This study adds new evidence quantifying how new cigarette and e-cigarette taxes change smoking behavior among older adults, a population yet to realize reductions in smoking despite higher risk of tobacco related harm. Analyzing large, population-based survey data, we show that older smokers change smoking behavior due to cigarette and e-cigarette taxes. Taxation of e-cig products may produce unintended harm among older smokers. Specifically, approaching tax parity may increase cigarette smoking and reduce quit attempts among older adults with a history of smoking.

4
Reductions to health-related quality of life associated with cigarette use, e-cigarette use, and depression among US adults

Cheng, C.; Skolnick, S.; Tam, J.

2026-03-23 health policy 10.64898/2026.03.19.26348841 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
6.7%
Show abstract

IntroductionAlthough prior studies suggest e-cigarette use is associated with worse mental health, it remains unclear whether these associations persist independent of diagnosed depression and how tobacco use and depression jointly affect health-related quality of life. Although the long-term health risks of vaping are still unknown, self-reported health is a reliable measure of quality of life. This study provides the first health utility estimates of the independent and combined effects of cigarette use, e-cigarette use, and depression on health-related quality of life. MethodsWe analyzed 2022-2023 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data on health-related quality of life as measured by self-reported physically or mentally unhealthy days in the past 30 days. The average number of unhealthy days was estimated by age, gender, smoking status (current versus non-smoking), depression status (received a prior diagnosis), and current e-cigarette use status (every day or some day use). We converted the number of overall healthy days into EQ-5D utility scores by age-specific percentile matching of BRFSS and MEPS distributions, a method developed by Jia and Lubetkin. ResultsCigarette use, e-cigarette use, and depression were each associated with worse health-related quality of life. Mentally unhealthy days increased with the accumulation of these conditions. Associations with physically unhealthy days followed a similar pattern, particularly among younger adults, although the magnitude of association was smaller. E-cigarette use alone was associated with 2.0-4.2 (95% CI: 2.0-4.6) additional mentally unhealthy days per month across all age groups. Notably, e-cigarette use was independently associated with poorer mental health among adults aged 18-64 with or without diagnosed depression. After accounting for smoking and depression status, e-cigarette use was associated with disutility scores of 0.011 in men and 0.015 in women among young adults, with the largest losses observed when multiple conditions co-occurred. ConclusionE-cigarette use is associated with poorer health-related quality of life, particularly among younger adults, and these effects are amplified when combined with cigarette use and depression. Quantifying these joint impacts as health utility losses highlights the importance of addressing e-cigarette use within integrated tobacco control and mental health policies, especially for young populations.

5
Addition of Bupropion or Varenicline to Nicotine Replacement Therapy After Acute Coronary Syndrome: A Propensity-Matched Real-World Analysis

Qadeer, A.; Gohar, N.; Maniyar, P.; Shafi, N.; Juarez, L. M.; Mortada, I.; Pack, Q. R.; Jneid, H.; Gaalema, D. E.

2026-04-23 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.04.21.26351432 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
4.8%
Show abstract

Introduction: Smoking cessation after acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is a Class I recommendation, yet prescription pharmacotherapy use remains low and its real-world cardiovascular effectiveness when added to nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) is poorly characterized. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the TriNetX US Collaborative Network (67 healthcare organizations). Adults hospitalized with ACS who received NRT within one month, serving as a proxy for active smoking status, were identified. Two co-primary propensity-matched (1:1, 50 covariates, caliper 0.10 SD) comparisons evaluated bupropion + NRT and varenicline + NRT individually versus NRT alone; a supportive analysis evaluated combined pharmacotherapy versus NRT alone. All-cause mortality was the primary endpoint. Secondary outcomes included MACE, heart failure exacerbations, major bleeding, TIA/stroke, emergency rehospitalizations, and cardiac rehabilitation utilization, assessed at 6 months and 1 year via Kaplan-Meier analysis. Hazard ratios (HRs) greater than 1.0 indicate higher hazard in the NRT-only group. Results: After matching, the combined analysis comprised 8,574 pairs, the bupropion analysis 4,654 pairs, and the varenicline analysis 2,126 pairs. At 1 year, the combined pharmacotherapy group had significantly lower all-cause mortality (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.16-1.37), MACE (HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.12-1.21), heart failure exacerbations (HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.08-1.25), major bleeding (HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.08-1.28), and greater cardiac rehabilitation utilization (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.74-0.92; all p < 0.001). TIA/stroke did not differ significantly. Six-month results were consistent. Both varenicline and bupropion individually showed lower mortality and MACE. A urinary tract infection falsification endpoint showed no between-group differences, supporting matching validity. The pharmacotherapy group had higher rates of new-onset depression, driven predominantly by bupropion recipients. Conclusions: In this propensity-matched real-world analysis, adding prescription smoking cessation pharmacotherapy to NRT after ACS was associated with lower mortality and fewer adverse cardiovascular events, supporting broader integration into post-ACS care pathways.

6
The Impact of MFN on Oncology and Hematology Treatments

Bowen, H. P.; O'Loughlin, G.; Drake, C.; Schleicher, C.; Schulthess, D.

2026-02-20 health economics 10.64898/2026.02.19.26346624 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
4.4%
Show abstract

BackgroundThe Most Favored Nation (MFN) policy is a mechanism that incorporates foreign prices to determine the maximum allowable net price for any branded drug within US government-funded healthcare. Two proposed rules, the Global Benchmark for Efficient Drug Pricing ("GLOBE") (90 Fed. Reg. 60,244) for Medicare Part B and the Guarding US Medicare Against Rising Drug Costs ("GUARD") (90 Fed. Reg. 60,338) for Medicare Part D, invoke the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation Centers payment and service model demonstration and waiver authority, under Section 1115A of the Social Security Act (42 U.S.C. [&#167;] 1315a), to calculate the US MFN price which is the lowest average price within a basket of specified foreign countries. Unlike voluntary manufacturer agreements, GLOBE and GUARD would mandate participation from all applicable manufacturers. MethodsWe derive MFNs potential impact on Medicare pricing from a proprietary dataset provided by IQVIA which contained net prices for the top 37 oncology products by total US sales from January 1, 2019 through June 30, 2025 ranked by total US sales in the following countries: Australia, Belgium, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, South Africa, Spain, Switzerland, the UK, and the US. For each drug, we select the lowest GDP-adjusted international price from a basket of those countries within 60% of the US GDP per capita, adjusted for purchasing power parity, and calculate the reduction in US price required to match its MFN price, and hence the corresponding reduction in revenues under MFN. A retrospective Net Present Value (NPV) analysis is then used to address the counterfactual question of whether each drug would have been developed had MFN pricing been in place at the time of its FDA approval. ResultsUnder MFN, the average reduction in US prices across our drug cohort was 67%. Eighty-four percent of the 37 cancer drugs in our cohort evidenced a negative NPV if MFN had been in place at the time of their FDA approval and the commercial market is impacted. When the analysis is restricted to MFNs impact on Medicare, the indications for these lost drugs have a total US population of 2.4 million patients. When the analysis is combined across the Medicare and commercial markets, the loss of lead indications impacts over 15 million US patients. ConclusionsMandatory MFN policies reduce the financial incentives required to develop cancer medicines; our projections show a substantial decline in new cancer drug launches and will likely lead companies to pursue indications for populations outside Medicares authority. If so, MFN will reduce the number of new therapies for the very population the Executive Orders are allegedly designed to aid: the Medicare-aged population who require effective new therapies in areas of high unmet medical need, such as late-stage cancers. This creates the perverse outcome of a policy nominally designed to help Medicare beneficiaries by instead redirecting innovation away from their most urgent therapeutic needs.

7
National Trends in Dentalcare Utilization, 2018-2021: Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Factors Associated with Care

Zanwar, P. P.; Zare, H.; Mathur, K.; Slashcheva, L.; Wu, B.

2026-02-09 health economics 10.64898/2026.02.07.26345812 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
4.3%
Show abstract

IntroductionAge-group specific disparities for dentalcare use persist in the United States. The COVID-19 led to delays in non-urgent dentalcare. We provide national estimates on dentalcare use and influencing factors for the U.S. population before and during the COVID-19. MethodsWe used nationally representative Medical Expenditure Panel Survey for over pre-COVID-19 years (2018-2019) and COVID-19 years (2020-2021) We estimated yearly survey-weighted trends in mean non-zero dental visits by age followed Poisson regression, controlling for a comprehensive set of confounders across five domains of influence. Dentalcare visits were defined as visits to any dentalcare provider. ResultsOverall analytic sample included non-institutionalized community living persons (unweighted n=6518, weighted N[~]320 million) grouped as ages 0-17, 18-44, 45-64, 65-74 and 75+ present in all four years The prevalence ratio (PR) for dental visits was slightly higher for ages 75+ in comparison to ages 65-74 across years 2018-2021 and increased from 1.73 (95% CI: 1.4, 2.1) to 1.84 (95% CI: 1.5, 2.3) to 2.13 (95% CI: 1.7, 2.7) from 2018 to 2020 but rebounding to near pre-pandemic level in 2021 to 1.66 (95% CI, 1.3, 2.0). Consistent factors during COVID-19 pandemic years 2020-2021 that increased dental visits included dental insurance, high income, and having a usual source of care (p<0.01). ConclusionsDentalcare use rebounded for older adults in 2021 but remained below pre-pandemic levels. Practical ImplicationsIncreasing dentalcare visits across ages remains a key policy priority. Continued monitoring of dentalcare use trends beyond COVID-19 among older adults is critical to improve their oral health.

8
Predictors of statin adherence in primary care using real-world data

Rakhshanda, S.; Jonnagaddala, J.; Liaw, S.-T.; Rhee, J.; Rye, K.-A.

2026-02-26 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.02.24.26347032 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
4.3%
Show abstract

PurposeThe objective of this study was to identify predictors of statin adherence in the primary and secondary prevention of CVD among patients in the first two years after the date of first prescription using real-world data. MethodsThe Electronic Practice Based Research Network Linked Dataset was used in this study. Statin adherence was calculated using a modified proportion of days covered (PDC) formula. Individuals with PDC [&ge;] 80% during the two years of observation period were considered as adherent. All analyses were performed with R software. Descriptive and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed. Sensitivity analysis was performed using the Akaike Information Criterion model selection method. ResultsOverall, 3,432 patients accounting for 57,227 visits met the selection criteria. The mean PDC was 91.6% ({+/-}22.2%), and 72.0% of the patients were adherent to statins (PDC [&ge;] 80%) in the first two years after the date of first prescription. After adjusting for all other variables, statin adherence was positively associated with age (AOR 1.7, 95% CI 1.4 - 2.0), SEIFA index (AOR 1.8, 95% CI 1.2 - 2.6), polypharmacy (AOR 1.8, 95% CI 1.3 - 2.5) and comorbidities (AOR 1.4, 95% CI 1.1 - 1.7), and negatively associated with the number of statin types (AOR 0.6, 95% CI 0.5 - 0.9) and smoking status (AOR 0.7, 95% CI 0.6 - 0.9). The sensitivity analysis showed similar results as the regression model. ConclusionsStatin adherence is influenced by an aging, multimorbid population, who are exposed to polypharmacy, multiple statin options and socioeconomic diversity. Key pointsO_LIAdherence in the first two years after the first date of statin prescription was measured as proportion of days covered (PDC) C_LIO_LIThe mean PDC was 91.6% ({+/-}22.2%) C_LIO_LI72.0% of the patients were adherent to statins, with PDC [&ge;] 80% C_LIO_LIStatin adherence was positively associated with age, area-based social advantage and disadvantage index, polypharmacy and comorbidities C_LIO_LIStatin adherence was negatively associated with the number of statin types prescribed to the patients and the smoking status of patients C_LI Plain Language SummaryThe objective of this study was to identify predictors of statin adherence among patients in the first two years after the date of first prescription using real-world data. The dataset used was the Electronic Practice Based Research Network Linked Dataset. Statin adherence was calculated using proportion of days covered (PDC). A PDC [&ge;] 80% during the two years of observation period were considered as adherent. Overall, 3,432 patients were eligible for this study, and 72.0% of them were adherent to statins in the first two years after the date of first prescription. Statin adherence was positively associated with age, area-based social advantage and disadvantage index, number of medicines taken by the patient and number of chronic conditions that the patient suffered. Moreover, statin adherence was negatively associated with the number of statin types prescribed to the patients and smoking status of patients.

9
Trends in Cardiometabolic Disease and Health-Related Quality of Life in the United States, 2001-2022

Yang, D.; Kim, D. D.

2026-02-23 health economics 10.64898/2026.02.20.26346754 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
4.1%
Show abstract

ObjectivesTo examine associations between cardiometabolic conditions and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and to evaluate whether condition-associated HRQoL changed from 2001 to 2022. MethodsWe analyzed nationally representative data from U.S. adults aged [&ge;]18 years in the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, 2001-2022. Survey years without BMI data (2017, 2019, 2021) were excluded. EQ-5D utilities were mapped from SF-12 scores using a validated algorithm. For each survey year, survey-weighted multivariable regression models estimated associations of sociodemographic characteristics, BMI, and cardiometabolic conditions (diabetes, heart disease, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, obesity, stroke) with HRQoL measured by EQ-5D. Temporal changes in condition-associated HRQoL decrements were assessed using meta-regression across years. Associations in recent survey years were summarized using pooled estimates from 2015, 2016, 2018, and 2022. ResultsOverall HRQoL improved from 2001 to 2022 across age groups, with the largest improvement among older adults. In pooled analyses, stroke was associated with the largest adjusted HRQoL decrement (-0.0714), followed by heart disease (-0.0503), diabetes (-0.0427), high blood pressure (-0.0328), obesity (-0.0305), and high cholesterol (-0.0236). Additional adjustment for BMI attenuated condition-associated decrements, most notably for obesity (-0.0305 to -0.0183), diabetes (-0.0427 to -0.0414), and high blood pressure (-0.0328 to -0.0316). Over time, diabetes- and heart disease-associated decrements attenuated linearly (diabetes: - 0.0489 in 2001 to -0.0406 in 2022; heart disease: -0.0591 to -0.0493). High blood pressure (-0.0337 in 2001, -0.0415 in 2012, -0.0306 in 2022) and obesity (-0.0305 in 2001, -0.0283 in 2012, -0.0367 in 2022) showed nonlinear patterns. ConclusionsCondition-associated HRQoL decrements varied over time, and recent-year utility estimates are recommended for population health research. HRQoL decrements for diabetes and heart disease attenuated, consistent with improvements in treatment and survival. High blood pressure-associated were lowest around 2012, and obesity-associated became more negative after 2012, consistent with worsening blood pressure control and obesity severity.

10
Evaluating the impact of Pharmacare on youth with mental health needs: a regression discontinuity analysis of unmet health care and life stress

Cao, P.; Bai, Y.; Ienciu, K.; Ehi, G.; Chum, A.

2026-03-12 health policy 10.64898/2026.03.11.26348184 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
4.0%
Show abstract

BackgroundCanadas youth are facing mental health crises due to barriers in accessing timely and affordable care. Ontarios OHIP+ pharmacare program, introduced in 2018, provided free prescription drug coverage to individuals under 25. While OHIP+ increased prescription use, its effects on perceived access and well-being among youth with mental health needs remain unclear. MethodsWe used a regression discontinuity design leveraging the OHIP+ age-eligibility cutoff at 25 to estimate its causal impact on unmet health care needs and self-perceived life stress. The sample included Ontario respondents aged 20-29 (n=1,053) from the 2018-2019 Canadian Community Health Survey who reported needing mental health support. Outcomes were self-reported unmet health care needs and a 5-point life stress scale. Models adjusted for sociodemographic factors and used age in months as the running variable. ResultsLoss of OHIP+ eligibility at age 25 was associated with a 19.0 percentage-point increase in the probability of reporting unmet health care needs (95% CI: 0.5 to 37.6 percentage points) and a 1.33-point increase in perceived life stress (95% CI: 0.45 to 2.21). These effects were consistent across subgroups and robust to multiple sensitivity tests. ConclusionOHIP+ improved access and reduced stress among youth with mental health needs while coverage was in place. However, the abrupt loss of eligibility at age 25 increased unmet needs and psychological strain, underscoring the need for continuous, inclusive pharmacare to support youth well-being. What is already known on this topicPublic drug coverage programs such as OHIP+ have been shown to increase prescription drug use among youth in Ontario, Canada. However, little is known about whether such programs improve patient-perceived outcomes. Existing evaluations have largely relied on descriptive data or aggregate prescribing trends, with few studies examining individual-level outcomes using quasi-experimental methods. What this study addsUsing a regression discontinuity design, this study provides the causal evidence that the OHIP+ pharmacare program reduced unmet health care needs and life stress among youth with perceived mental health concerns while they remained eligible for coverage. The findings show that the abrupt loss of eligibility at age 25 was associated with increased unmet needs and heightened stress, suggesting that age-based cutoffs in drug coverage may disrupt care and contribute to psychological strain during a critical life stage. How this study might affect research, practice or policyThis study suggests that universal drug coverage programs should ensure continuity through young adulthood to avoid worsening access gaps. The findings support the need for a national pharmacare framework that promotes equitable and sustained health support.

11
Transitions in ENDS and cigarette use among youth in the PATH Study from 2015-2023: a multistate transition modeling analysis

Roberts, O. K.; Jeon, J.; Jimenez-Mendoza, E.; Land, S. R.; Freedman, N. D.; Torres-Alvarez, R.; Mistry, R.; Meza, R.; Brouwer, A. F.

2026-04-15 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.14.26349857 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
4.0%
Show abstract

Introduction: Monitoring trends in transitions in the use of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) and cigarettes among youth is important for understanding the potential public health impacts of these products. Methods: Using a weighted Markov multistate transition model accounting for complex survey design, we estimated transition rates and one-year transition probabilities between never, non-current, ENDS-only, and cigarette use (with or without dual use of ENDS) among 26,744 youth aged 12-17 years who participated in at least two consecutive waves from Waves 2-7.5 (approximately 2015-2023) of the nationally representative Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study. We also estimated transitions stratified by ages 12-14 and 15-17 years. Results. The one-year probability of ENDS-only initiation from never use among youth peaked in 2017-19 (Waves 4-5) at 4.0% (95%CI: 3.6-4.3%) and was higher for 15-17-year-olds at 5.8% (95%CI: 5.2-6.4%) than 12-14-year-olds at 2.2% (95%CI: 1.8-2.6%). In the following years, ENDS-only initiation rates declined and plateaued, with 2.6% (95%CI: 2.3-3.0%) initiation in 2022-23. Cigarette initiation from never use decreased over 2015-23 from 0.8% (95%CI: 0.6-1.0%) in 2015-16 to 0.1% (95%CI: 0.0-0.2%) in 2022-23. There was an increase in the fraction of youth who transitioned from non-current product use to ENDS-only use from 13.7% (95%CI: 7.5-20.0%) in 2015-16 to 35.1% (95%CI: 25.4-44.8%) in 2022-23, paired with a decrease in non-current use to cigarette use from 20.9% (95%CI: 11.8-30.0%) to 6.3% (95%CI: 1.7-10.8%). Transitions from ENDS-only or cigarette use to non-current use remained relatively constant over time at around 25% and 15% per year, respectively. Conclusion. ENDS-only use initiation has changed over time, peaking around 2019 and subsequently decreasing and plateauing, but cessation rates for both ENDS and cigarettes have remained relatively stable. Thus, interruption of tobacco product initiation may be the most effective approach to reducing tobacco product use among youth.

12
Model-Based Evaluation of Colorectal Cancer Screening Effectiveness: Three Rounds of Multitarget Stool DNA Testing Versus One Colonoscopy

Dore, M.; Ebner, D. W.; Vahdat, V.; Estes, C.; Ozbay, A. B.; Foster, V.; Limburg, P. J.

2026-03-03 gastroenterology 10.64898/2026.01.30.26344467 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
3.7%
Show abstract

BackgroundSeveral colorectal cancer (CRC) screening modalities are guideline-recommended in the United States, yet they vary considerably in screening interval and real-world adherence. As a result, single-round test performance may not reflect cumulative effectiveness over time. This study compared the 10-year longitudinal outcomes of two CRC screening strategies-- triennial next-generation multitarget stool DNA testing (ng mt-sDNA) and decennial screening colonoscopy. MethodsThis study used the validated, microsimulation-based Colorectal Cancer and Adenoma Incidence and Mortality (CRC-AIM) model to estimate 10-year cumulative outcomes for two guideline-recommended screening strategies: triennial ng mt-sDNA and decennial colonoscopy. Model inputs included test-specific performance and real-world adherence. Outcomes included CRC and precancerous lesions detected, CRC mortality reductions, and life-years gained (LYG). Sensitivity analyses examined the effects of varying both screening adherence and follow-up colonoscopy adherence. ResultsOver 10 years per 1,000 individuals offered screening, the ng mt-sDNA screening test detected 13% more precancerous lesions and 11% more CRC cases than colonoscopy, with a greater proportion of CRCs identified through screening rather than symptomatic detection. ng mt-sDNA resulted in greater CRC mortality reduction (33% vs 20%) and 62% more life-years gained, with consistent findings across sensitivity analyses. ConclusionsWith real-world adherence, screening with triennial ng mt-sDNA demonstrates superior cumulative effectiveness compared with decennial colonoscopy, driven by higher adherence and favorable longitudinal performance. These findings support the expanded use of noninvasive stool-based screening to reduce CRC mortality and alleviate capacity constraints associated with colonoscopy-based screening. Broader adoption of ng mt-sDNA may enhance population-level CRC prevention by increasing participation and improving early detection across the screening eligible population. Plain language summaryColorectal cancer screening tests are recommended at different time intervals and completed at different adherence rates in clinical practice. The analysis used a validated simulation model to compare 10-year outcomes of triennial next-generation multi-target stool DNA test (ng mt-sDNA) with a single colonoscopy, accounting for real-world screening and follow-up colonoscopy adherence. Our findings indicate that repeated ng mt-sDNA provides greater cumulative screening effectiveness than colonoscopy over a 10-year period.

13
Patient Portal Activation Among Neurology Patients in Washington, DC

Streicher, N. S.

2026-04-11 health policy 10.64898/2026.04.08.26350061 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
3.6%
Show abstract

Background and ObjectivesPatient portals have become essential infrastructure for healthcare delivery following the 21st Century Cures Act, yet adoption remains inequitable. Understanding demographic and geographic determinants of portal activation is critical for addressing digital health disparities, particularly among neurology patients who face unique access barriers. We examined the demographic, geographic, and neighborhood-level factors associated with patient portal activation among neurology patients at multiple geographic scales in the Washington, DC metropolitan area. MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study of 72,417 adult neurology patients seen at two academic medical centers sharing an electronic health record in Washington, DC (February 2021-February 2026). We examined portal activation using multivariable logistic regression and geographic analysis at four nested scales: the metropolitan catchment area, DCs eight wards, individual census tracts (via geocoded patient addresses), and individual DC residents. ResultsPortal activation was 64.7% overall. Activation varied by race/ethnicity (Non-Hispanic White 76.1%, Non-Hispanic Black 57.0%, Non-Hispanic Asian 57.6%, Hispanic 55.0%) and geography (DC Ward 2: 82.0% vs. Ward 7: 48.0%). Ward-level educational attainment (r = 0.948), broadband access (r = 0.889), and income (r = 0.811) were strongly correlated with activation. Within individual wards, Non-Hispanic White patients activated at 84-91% while Non-Hispanic Black patients activated at 48-64%, demonstrating that neighborhood resources alone do not explain disparities. DiscussionPatient portal activation is shaped by demographic, socioeconomic, and geographic factors operating at multiple levels. Persistent within-ward racial disparities indicate that geographically targeted interventions must be paired with culturally tailored approaches to achieve digital health equity.

14
Trends for the Impact of Cigarette Smoking on Mortality in US States

Holford, T. R.; Tam, J.; Jeon, J.; Mok, Y.; Meza, R.

2026-02-04 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.02.02.26345393 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
3.6%
Show abstract

IntroductionMortality and smoking rates vary over time across the US. The Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network--Lung Working Group (CISNET-LWG) has developed a smoking history generator to describe the effects smoking on health. This work further refines these parameters and quantifies effects on life expectancy MethodsData from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey (TUS-CPS) were used to estimate smoking history parameters for each state. The age-period-cohort was used in most cases, but an age-cohort mode was used for cessation probabilities. Population mortality data were used to estimate mortality rates for all causes, lung cancer, and non-lung cancer. These were partitioned by smoking status. ResultsCalifornia and Kentucky are states with more or less aggressive tobacco control. The difference between population cohort life expectancy and life expectancy of never smoker was greater for males than for females, and it was greater in Kentucky than California because of higher smoking rates. These differences decreased with time. Similar result are shown for each state. ConclusionsVariation in smoking parameters and mortality trends vary considerably among states. These show variation in exposure to tobacco smoking and their effects on life expectancy. The Southeast region tends to have greater differences from never smokers because of higher smoking rates. However, there are also other factors affecting mortality rates.

15
Projected impact of a national Tobacco 21 policy in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Tam, J.; Meza, R.; Aljabri, M. A.; Al-Zalabani, A. H.; Monshi, S. S.; Yakoub, A. A.; Aldhaher, F. M.; Hamza, M. M.; Albalawi, W.; Alsukait, R.; Shahin, M. A.; Cetinkaya, V.; Alghaith, T.

2026-02-27 health policy 10.64898/2026.02.25.26347109 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
3.6%
Show abstract

IntroductionTobacco smoking is especially high among males in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). In 2019, 27.5% of males ages 15+ reported smoking. Despite a minimum age requirement of 18 years, data indicate that 6.8% of youth ages 13-15 currently smoke tobacco products. To reduce youth smoking, countries have raised the minimum purchase age to 21, also referred to as Tobacco 21. Except for Kuwait, no other Middle Eastern country has done so. We develop a tobacco smoking simulation model to project the potential impact of a national Tobacco 21 policy in Saudi Arabia. MethodsWe used data from three nationally representative health surveys in Saudi Arabia to develop the KSA Tobacco Control Policy (TCP) model, estimating smoking initiation and cessation rates for males, as smoking rates are low among females. A national Tobacco 21 policy was operationalized as a 34% (15%-53%) reduction to smoking initiation for ages 18-20. Economic impact was evaluated using the 2024 KSA value of a statistical life which ranges from $1.65 million to $5.15 million USD. ResultsUnder a status quo scenario, tobacco smoking prevalence in males would decrease to 10.2% by 2100. Implementation of Tobacco 21 in 2026 would decrease smoking prevalence to 9.4% (8.9%, 9.8%) by 2100. While modest, these reductions would eventually translate into nearly 5000 (2200, 7800) premature deaths averted with up to 155000 (69000, 241000) life years gained from 2026-2100, respectively. The total expected economic benefit ranges from $1.67 to $5.19 billion USD, equivalent to 6.25 to 19.45 billion SAR. DiscussionTimely implementation would support the KSA in its goals to reduce non-communicable disease and death; however, even under best-case conditions, a Tobacco 21 alone would not achieve the Vision 2030 smoking prevalence target of 9%. Additional policies that substantially increase smoking cessation are needed. What is already known on this topicThe leading causes of death in Saudi Arabia are all linked to tobacco smoking. Tobacco 21 policies have been pursued by numerous governments to reduce youth smoking, but such policies are lacking in Middle Eastern nations. What this study addsA nationwide Tobacco 21 policy in Saudi Arabia would reduce smoking initiation, smoking prevalence, and smoking-related mortality. Overall smoking prevalence among males ages 15+ would decline, and nearly 5000 premature deaths would be averted with up to 155,000 life years gained from 2026-2100, valued at 6.25 to 19.45 billion SAR. How this study might affect research, practice or policyThis study quantified for the first time the potential long-term benefits of a Tobacco 21 policy in Saudi Arabia for the male population. A Tobacco 21 policy would benefit future generations of young people by reducing their risk for heart disease, stroke, and cancer, currently the leading causes of death in the nation. However, additional efforts are needed in addition to Tobacco 21 policies to achieve tobacco smoking reduction goals.

16
Long COVID Prevalence among U.S. Adults: A State-level Ecological Analysis of the Contribution of COVID-19 Incidence, Severity of Acute Illness, COVID-19 Vaccination, and Chronic Conditions

Zhao, X.; Deng, L.; Ford, N. D.; Saydah, S.

2026-03-09 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.03.07.26347841 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
3.6%
Show abstract

BackgroundLong COVID has emerged as a major public-health concern in the United States, yet geographic variation in its prevalence remains poorly understood. This study examines how state-level differences in COVID-19 vaccination, SARS-CoV-2 incidence, COVID-19 hospitalization, and chronic disease burden relate to adult Long COVID prevalence in the United States. MethodsWe conducted an ecological analysis using data from the 2023 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), from which we estimated state-level prevalence of self-reported Long COVID among adults. These estimates were linked with publicly available data on SARS-CoV-2 incidence, COVID-19 hospitalizations, COVID-19 vaccine coverage, and a multimorbidity indicator (>= 3 chronic conditions e.g., diabetes, obesity, chronic kidney disease) associated with higher risk for severe SARS-CoV-2. Multivariable linear regression models were fitted to assess the contribution of each factor adjusted for age and sex distribution, incorporating Rubins rules to account for uncertainty in prevalence estimates. ResultsAll examined factors--including SARS-CoV-2 incidence, hospitalization rates, and multimorbidity, vaccine coverage--varied by state. When modeled simultaneously and adjusting for age and sex distribution, only COVID-19 vaccine coverage and SARS-CoV-2 incidence were significantly associated with Long COVID prevalence. COVID-19 vaccine coverage showed a strong protective association, while SARS-CoV-2 incidence showed a modest positive association. Multimorbidity and hospitalization rates were not independently associated with adjustment. ConclusionsState-level variation in Long COVID burden appears most strongly driven by COVID-19 vaccine coverage and SARS-CoV-2 incidence. Promoting COVID-19 vaccination remains essential to reduce long-term impacts from SARS-CoV-2 infections.

17
Predictors of statin intolerance in primary care using real-world data

Rakhshanda, S.; Jonnagaddala, J.; Liaw, S.-T.; Rhee, J.; Rye, K.-A.

2026-02-24 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.02.23.26346866 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
3.6%
Show abstract

ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to explore the predictors of statin intolerance in the primary and secondary prevention of CVD among patients in the first two years after the date of first prescription using real-world data. MethodsThis study used the Electronic Practice Based Research Network Linked Dataset. An algorithm, which considered the muscle symptoms and creatinine kinase of patients, was used to identify statin intolerant patients. The R software was used for all analyses. Descriptive and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed along with sensitivity analysis which was done using the Akaike Information Criterion model selection method. ResultsOverall, 4,016 patients accounting for 60,873 visits met the selection criteria. About 3.5% of the patients were statin intolerant. After adjusting for all other variables, statin intolerance was positively associated with gender (AOR 1.5, 95% CI 1.0 - 2.2), SEIFA index (AOR 3.8, 95% CI 2.3 - 6.7), employment status (AOR 2.4, 95% CI 1.1 - 5.7), and comorbidities (AOR 7.0, 95% CI 2.2 - 19.0). A similar direction of associations was seen for the exposures of the model from the sensitivity analysis and the regression model. However, since the unrecorded employment status showed a positive association, the sensitivity analysis suggests that the relationship may be influenced by residual confounding or information bias, indicating that this finding should be interpreted with caution. ConclusionStatin intolerance within the diverse community represented in the dataset is driven by gender, employment status, area-based social advantage and disadvantage index, and comorbidities.

18
Characterizing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV testing among Medicaid beneficiaries

Palatino, M.; Rudolph, J. E.; Zhou, Y.; Calkins, K.; Yenokyan, K.; Lucas, G. M.; Xu, X.; Wentz, E.; Joshu, C. E.; Lau, B.

2026-02-14 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.02.12.26346199 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
3.1%
Show abstract

ObjectivesEstimate the HIV testing, diagnoses, and test positivity rates among Medicaid beneficiaries in 2016-2021 and assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on these outcomes. DesignProspective observational study of Medicaid enrollment, inpatient, and outpatient claims data from 27 states, 2016-2021. MethodsWe assessed Medicaid claims from adult beneficiaries with full benefits whose first continuous enrollment was [&ge;]6 months without dual enrollment in other insurance, and without previous HIV diagnosis. We estimated the rates of annual testing, HIV diagnosis, and proportion of positive HIV tests among the tested using Poisson regression models. Bayesian structural time series modelling was performed to examine the pandemics impact on study outcomes with 3/16/2020-12/31/2021 as the pandemic period. We estimated rates overall and by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and states level of COVID-19-related restriction policies. ResultsWe included 20,508,785 beneficiaries. Male beneficiaries, especially 18-34-year-olds, had lower annual testing uptake and higher test positivity rates than female beneficiaries. Black beneficiaries had higher annual testing rates than White and Hispanic beneficiaries. While the pandemic acutely disrupted the increasing pre-pandemic testing trend, the rates recovered to the expected level had the pandemic not happened, except among 18-34-year-old male beneficiaries, whose pandemic rates were, on average, 18.1% lower (95% confidence interval:-22.3,-13.8) than projected rates. HIV diagnosis and test positivity rates were not affected by the pandemic. ConclusionThe pandemic significantly impacted the testing uptake among young male beneficiaries, highlighting the need for innovative strategies to improve HIV testing uptake in this demographic, restoring it to pre-pandemic levels or better.

19
Trade-offs in Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Using Race and Social Determinants of Health

Hammarlund, N.; Wang, X.; Grant, D.; Purves, D.

2026-04-04 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.04.02.26350089 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
3.0%
Show abstract

Importance: Health systems are increasingly adopting race-neutral cardiovascular risk prediction tools, yet no study has examined how these choices redistribute preventive treatment at the point of clinical decision-making, particularly for Black individuals who already bear a disproportionate cardiovascular burden. Objective: To evaluate how including race, substituting social determinants of health (SDoH), or excluding both reshapes cardiovascular risk classification, calibration, fairness, and clinical decisions. Design: Retrospective cohort study with repeated cross-validation and integrated decision-focused evaluation, using CARDIA study data with baseline measures from 2010 and cardiovascular outcomes through 2021. Setting: Community-based longitudinal cohort recruited across multiple U.S. cities. Participants: 3,241 Black and White adults without known cardiovascular disease at baseline. Main Outcomes and Measures: Three models predicting 10-year incident cardiovascular disease were compared on predictive performance, calibration, fairness metrics, and realized clinical utility at the ACC/AHA 7.5% preventive treatment threshold. Results: Among 3,241 participants (46% Black, mean age 50 years, 6.9% CVD incidence), overall performance was similar across models (AUC 0.762 to 0.768). Predictor choice substantially reshaped clinical decisions at the guideline threshold. The SDoH-based model improved parity metrics but produced systematic underprediction and concentrated new overtreatment among Black participants. The clinical-only model further improved parity metrics but generated new undertreatment, with four cases of untreated CVD and none avoided. No single evaluative dimension captured the full equity consequences. Conclusions and Relevance: Parity metrics improved under both race-neutral models, yet both produced clinical harms concentrated among Black participants not apparent in population-average metrics. The case for race removal has rested on conceptual grounds, but comprehensive empirical evaluation is necessary before health systems can be confident their model choices truly serve those most at risk.

20
Characteristics and Correlates of Older Smokers Experiences with E-Cigarette-Related Content on Social Media: Findings from a U.S.-Based Survey

Dycus, R.

2026-04-11 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.07.26350354 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
2.8%
Show abstract

BackgroundDespite their potential to serve as a reduced-harm alternative to combustible tobacco, e-cigarette take-up remains low among older (45+) adult smokers, especially in the U.S. While social media is a known driver of vaping attitudes and behaviors in younger populations, its influence on older smokers is poorly understood. This paper provides the first focused analysis of e-cigarette-related social media exposure in this population, documenting its prevalence, characteristics, and attitudinal correlates. MethodsData come from an opt-in survey of U.S. adults (N = 974) recruited via Prolific, comprising three groups: (i) non-vaping smokers aged 45+ (N = 484), (ii) former-smoking vapers aged 45+ (N = 149), and (iii) any-vaping-status smokers aged 18-35 (N = 341). Descriptive statistics, weighted to U.S. population benchmarks, characterize self-reported exposure to e-cigarette-related content on social media. Logistic regressions estimate associations between exposure and intentions for future e-cigarette use, e-cigarette harm perceptions, and related attitudes. ResultsOlder smokers (35.3%) reported exposure to e-cigarette-related content on social media less frequently than both older vapers (44.0%) and younger smokers (72.0%). For older smokers, e-cigarette health risks were the most frequently reported topic of content viewed, followed by youth vaping and e-cigarette addiction. Among this group, exposure was positively associated with stated intentions for future e-cigarette use. Exposure was not significantly associated with perceived e-cigarette harms for any group. ConclusionsFindings provide suggestive evidence that social media exposure may promote e-cigarette adoption among older smokers. However, the cross-sectional design limits causal inference, and the observed associations may reflect selection bias or reverse causality. If a causal relationship exists, the patterns observed suggest that exposure influences e-cigarette adoption through mechanisms other than updating beliefs about e-cigarette risks. While these results tentatively support the potential of social media as a channel for older-smoker harm reduction, any policy applications must carefully weigh privacy concerns and risks to youth. Rigorous experimental studies are needed to confirm these findings and clarify how social media might be leveraged to improve public health outcomes among older smokers.